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Roy Amara was an American researcher that created Amara’s Law. Focused on forecasting the effects on technology it states: we tend to overestimate the effects of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effects in the long run. A simple explanation for why we often miss new technologies that upend old ones. Innovation is a gradual process. The unrealistic expectations create the Amara hype cycle where all new innovations disappoint in the beginning only to exceed expectations once it gets going. The effect is slow, like social media replacing newspapers, but obvious in hindsight.
Why We're Terrible at Predicting the Future (And How to Fix It)
Gartner Hype Cycle Research Methodology | Gartner
Understanding Gartner’s Hype Cycles